Part two for my National League report is a big one, with two big arms finding new homes. The biggest, of course, is Johan Santana’s trade to the New York Mets. I was already writing up an article about how the situation was going down but the trade went through before I finalized it. So instead I will have a fantasy analysis of the impact of that trade here and if you want more details about the trade, you can find them here at BLOG.
Santana was not the only big arm that moved from the AL to the NL, however. Before the Santana move the Oakland Athletics shipped ace Dan Haren to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a bunch of prospects. I will also be looking at the Brewer’s acquisition of former saves king Eric Gagne and a young arm that the Marlins received as part of the package for giving away Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.
Johan Santana (New York Mets)
This is the big one. After months and months of rumors and speculation about when, where, and if Santana would get traded, the Twins finally shipped their ace to New York as expected. Except, to the delight of AL clubs, particularly in Bean Town, everywhere, it was to the National League Mets rather than the Yankees. This has generally be considered great news for fantasy owners of the two-time Cy Young winner, who will now be on a better club, in a better pitcher’s park, and facing weaker line-ups.
While he was previously practically tied with Jake Peavy for top pitcher and going in the 2nd-3rd rounds, Santana’s value has since soared as he jumped to mid-first round to early second round value in most drafts and is once again the clear top pitcher in most people’s minds.
What does this change mean statistically? It is safe to say that you can be optimistic about Santana being more like, well Santana pre-2007. It is definitely reasonable to expect him to record his first 20-win season since 2004, drop his ERA back down to below 3.00, and flirt with 250 K.
Dan Haren (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Before Santana (and later on Erik Bedard) found a new home, Dan Haren was the biggest arm to change teams. Paired with Cy Young winner Brandon Webb, Arizona looks to be trying to recreate the magic from its last 1-2 punch of Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson. While many are thrilled by Haren’s move to the National League, I am a bit more cautious as Chase Field is a much more hitter-friendly park (Chase gave up the fifth most homers last year while Oakland’s McAfee Coliseum gave up the second fewest) and Haren fared much better at home in Oakland than away from his spacious field
That being said, he will be facing weaker line-ups (hello San Francisco) and have excellent run support. Haren has gone over 215 innings in each of the past three years and should be able to improve upon his 15 wins from a year ago while looking for his strikeouts to top 200 and ERA to hover around 3.15.
Eric Gagne (Milwaukee Brewers)
Gagne makes his not-so-triumphant return to the National League where he hopes he can resurrect his rollercoaster career. Once the king of closers and consistency, he is now known more for his frailty and Mitchell Report claims. That being said, this might be the perfect situation for Gagne.
Milwaukee has had a good record of taking unwanted players and finding a way to produce results in the ninth inning and Gagne could be the next in line. Most will remember his meltdown in Boston last season but before he wore down he posted 16 saves and a 2.16 ERA for the Texas Rangers. Gagne is no longer a top closer but could be a cheap source of saves late in your draft. Grab him cheap in auctions or late in drafts and not have to worry about dumping him if he doesn’t produce.
Andrew Miller (Florida Marlins)
Miller was a key part of the trade that sent all-star third baseman Miguel Cabrera and pitcher Dontrelle Willis to Detroit. Once considered a top prospect, the 22-year old lefty will be looking for a spot in the Marlins rotation for 2008. Miller struggled last season and isn’t yet polished enough to help much this season, due to control issues and a lack of run support (the Marlins were also the worst fielding club in the league last season), but he has value in keeper leagues. He was Baseball America’s 2006 College Player of the Year and spent very little time in the minors before being called up to Detroit, so he is very raw but has a very high ceiling. Stash him away if you can.
