Declining numbers and increasing age aren't usually topics of interest when discussing sleeper picks. In this case, your competing managers are over-looking the hidden value of 's numbers and focusing on the negative aspects of his aging game.
Obviously something happened to the once-potent bat of Big Papi. After missing a third of the 2008 season and experiencing a significant decline in OPS, he continued a downward trend last season and posted the lowest OBP (.794) of his career. While this should concern you, his bat still brings significant pop if you can afford the low batting average.
Most fantasy managers look at Ortiz's 28 home runs from last season and assume he will not reach this number in 2010. He is getting old, had numerous injuries, and can't see the ball like he used to. Most fail to realize that Papi failed to hit a home run until May 20th. After hitting one combined home run in the first two months of the season he went on a tear, hitting seven dingers in June/July/August and six in September. That is hardly the power outage most remember from 2009. If Ortiz can find the ball early in the season he is still a possible 35+ home run hitter for a potent offense.
Do not draft Ortiz expecting his average to climb back up like his home run totals. He reached his peak at .332 in 2007, which was an extreme outlier from his career average of .282. An average around .255 is likely more expected from his aging eyes. The smart move is to take a high AVG player earlier in the draft if you plan on drafting Papi.
Ortiz is currently being taken around pick 189 in the middle of the 15th round of standard 12 team drafts over at MockDraftCentral. Players going before him include , , , and . None of these players are offering any sort of upside and, other than Delgado, have never seen the power numbers that Ortiz can provide.
Draft Ortiz knowing his average is going to hurt but his HR and RBI totals should should be at a bargain.
