It’s an annual dilemma facing every Fantasy owner; “How early should I go for a pitcher?” Given how unpredictable the position can be, it’s a question not easily answered.

Each season has its share of no-names who emerge as aces as well as early round studs that disappoint.

Last year, for instance, saw All Stars Justin Duchscherer, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Ryan Dempster and Edinson Volquez go undrafted in many leagues with another free agent, Cliff Lee, walking off with the AL Cy Young award.

Conversely, owners used early round draft picks on the likes of Erik Bedard, Carlos Zambrano, Aaron Harang and Justin Verlander, only to watch them fall flat on their faces.

As this is an annual occurrence, many Fantasy players are unsure of how to properly assemble a staff. In the Moonlight system, it is recommended that you anchor the staff with an elite pitcher with no health issues and then try to pluck one hurler from each tier of players as the draft progresses, limiting risk by selecting no more than one with a history of injury.

ELITE

Johan Santana — If not for the Mets’ bullpen, Santana would have pocketed another Cy Young. His velocity was down but didn’t prevent him from posting a career best ERA.

Tim Lincecum — More impressive than the second year ace leading the league in strikeouts was the fact that he managed 18 W with a terrible Giants team. The dramatic increase in IP, however, makes him an injury risk.

Dan Haren — His K rate has risen each year of his career. The great numbers he’s posted so far are still not his best.

C.C. Sabathia — Lost in his incredible finish for Milwaukee was the abysmal 1-7 start that saw him traded in many Fantasy leagues. He’s a workhorse that has shown no wear and tear from the load but it will be interesting to see what happens in New York should he again break from the gate slowly.

Rich Harden — Yes he’s a huge injury risk but when healthy his numbers are better than any of the other four previously mentioned. His K rate, ERA and WHIP are all incredible. Take away his injury history and he’s a first rounder.

SLEEPERS

Adam Wainwright — Could turn out to be the Cardinals’ ace. Missed first due to finger injury but returned to post 11-3 record with solid ERA and WHIP. The low W total may allow him to slip into the middle to late rounds.

Ryan Dempster — Why was he ever in the bullpen? 17 W, 187K and 2.96 ERA were all supported by a high ground ball rate that says he can do this again. Also, as the fourth man in the Cubs’ rotation, he’ll usually have the upper hand over the opposition starter.

Zach Greinke — His steady improvement over the last three seasons peaked in the second half of ’08 as he averaged better than a K per IP. His stats are solid across the board.

Wandy Rodriguez — The deepest of sleepers, he won’t get drafted in many leagues. Yet, his ’08 ERA was the same as Roy Oswalt and he averaged almost 1 K per IP. A solid ground ball rate will help in Houston. If he can stay healthy, he’s a huge breakout candidate.

OVERRATED

A.J. Burnett — Has logged 200 IP only 3 times in 10 years, twice for big paydays. A good bet to break down.

Daisuke Matsuzaka — BB rate of 5 per 9 IP is a red flag. Doesn’t make sense that he’d be able to lower his ERA 1.5 with that stat. Draft the K but don’t pay up for anything else.

Carlos Zambrano — K have declined by 80 over last three seasons. He’s out of shape and inclined to meltdowns when things get tight. Stay away.

Chien Ming Wang —Has averaged just 4 K per 9 IP over career. The wins are great but don’t compensate the high ERA and WHIP.

BUSTS

Jon Garland — 4.90 ERA was worst of career. High scoring Angels’ offense will no longer support his high WHIP as he moves to Arizona. Fact that he throws a lot of innings will also hurt you.

Joe Blanton — Consistently bad ERA should only get worse in Philly band box.

Jeremy Bonderman — Missed most of ’08 after surgery to remove rib that was causing blood clots. Recovery a big question as his numbers have been declining for a while.

PROSPECTS

Max Scherzer — After dominating AAA, he burst onto the scene with 5 perfect innings in his first start. Has no ceiling. K rate of 10.6 per 9 IP. Dominant starter.

Kevin Slowey — Allowed only 24 BB in 160 IP. Solid stats throughout Minor League career. Future Twins’ ace.

Yovani Gallardo — Sub 4.00 ERA in ‘07 with great K rate. Lost season to knee, no arm troubles.

Eddie Mayrose writes fantasy baseball commentary for the Brooklyn Daily Eagle.