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Legit or Quit: 2009 Career Years Analyzed

Cody Crosby, FantasyJuice.com

February 17, 2010

Each season many players post career numbers but are these numbers legit? Those who posted career numbers last season are analyzed below.

When predicting production for 2010 it is important to look at least year's stats and compare it to career averages. For some players, increases can be expected while others are bound to regress.

Below are some of the top-ranked players heading into the 2010 season. Use this list as a tool to judge value for these players during your draft.

	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Mark Reynolds
2009	98	44	102	24	.260
Career Average	92	33	97	13	.257
2010 Projected	95	35	100	12	.250
Comments	A break-out year from the strikeout king. Look for significant declines in HRs and SBs, seriously affecting his value during the season. He's a solid contributor but kills your team average.
Justin Upton
2009	84	26	86	20	.300
Career Average	82	23	74	12	.272
2010 Projected	90	27	90	18	.282
Comments	Fantastic sophomore year from a rising star. Don't overpay expecting huge increases in power and speed. Temper expectations and let others take him at inflated prices in non-keeper leagues.
Joe Mauer
2009	94	28	96	4	.365
Career Average	92	16	88	8	.327
2010 Projected	95	21	88	2	.335
Comments	What a season from Minnesota's heartthrob. His power will regress a bit but he's still the best catcher option out there. His average will return to humanly numbers as well.
Matt Kemp
2009	97	26	101	34	.297
Career Average	89	20	81	28	.299
2010 Projected	102	28	95	31	.303
Comments	A permanent move up the batting order should help Kemp repeat similar numbers to 2009. A 30/30 season is not out of the question.
Aaron Hill
2009	103	36	108	6	.286
Career Average	80	16	72	5	.285
2010 Projected	98	25	95	4	.282
Comments	If you saw Hill's 2009 season coming then I want you to pick my lotto numbers. His power was far beyond his career numbers so expect a significant decline.
Ryan Zimmerman
2009	110	33	106	2	.292
Career Average	90	23	94	5	.284
2010 Projected	97	34	102	3	.287
Comments	He is still young at 25 so an increase in power would come as no surprise. Playing for the Nationals, do not expect his totals to rise next season.
Jayson Werth
2009	98	36	99	20	.268
Career Average	82	23	80	16	.265
2010 Projected	95	32	92	19	.273
Comments	Werth's draft price will be high this season but don't expect significant increases in any statistic.
Kendry Morales
2009	86	34	108	3	.306
Career Average	70	26	85	2	.283
2010 Projected	88	35	104	1	.295
Comments	Morales made the most of his time in 2009. He should see a decline in AVG but all other stats should hold steady on a potent Angels offense.
Jason Bartlett
2009	90	14	66	30	.320
Career Average	77	7	52	24	.287
2010 Projected	88	11	57	26	.291
Comments	The power and AVG came out of nowhere in 2009. AVG will decrease along with HRs.
Andre Ethier
2009	92	31	106	6	.272
Career Average	75	20	81	5	.291
2010 Projected	95	33	103	4	.281
Comments	Ethier's stats improve each season, except for AVG in 2009. His power should hold steady and AVG should improve as he figures out lefties once again.