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Legit or Quit: 2009 Underachievers
Cody Crosby, FantasyJuice.com

We analyze players from the 2009 season who were healthy bu saw significant declines in production. Are they still legit performers or should you finally stop drafting them?

The 2010 seasons of the following players are projected based on 2009's numbers and career averages. The career average is calculated dividing career totals by the number of games played and then multiplying by 155 games.

R HR RBI SB AVG
Russell Martin
2009 63 7 53 11 .250
Career Average 82 13 75 16 .276
2010 Projected 74 14 66 9 .279
Comments 2009 marked the third straight year seeing a decline in OPS for Martin. He will get more rest during 2010, leaving him less fatigued which should help his overall numbers. Except totals near his career averages except for the decrease in speed.
B.J. Upton
2009 79 11 55 42 .241
Career Average 87 15 68 37 .266
2010 Projected 92 14 59 35 .260
Comments Like Martin above, Upton saw his third straight year of declining OPS. His power should climb back up a bit and expect a better eye as he matures, leading to a better OBP in 2010. His peak speed was probably in 2008 so don't draft him expecting 50+ steals.
David Ortiz
2009 77 28 99 0 .238
Career Average 95 34 114 1 .282
2010 Projected 85 30 102 0 .257
Comments As we've pointed out before when calling Ortiz a 2010 Sleeper, his numbers last season weren't bad considering he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn to start the season. His average should creep up a little bit and the power and run production should still be there.
Adrian Beltre
2009 54 8 44 13 .265
Career Average 76 23 84 10 .270
2010 Projected 75 19 72 6 .268
Comments A move to the Boston will have many owners touting Beltre as a 2010 sleeper. While his numbers will improve over last season's disaster, do not expect great things next season.
Stephen Drew
2009 71 12 65 5 .261
Career Average 78 16 67 6 .270
2010 Projected 85 18 72 6 .277
Comments Last season was a step backward after an impressive 2008 for Drew. His XBH tanked a bit, as did his AVG and HR. He has the tools to repeat 2008 so get him at a lower price this season.
Magglio Ordonez
2009 54 9 50 3 .310
Career Average 91 26 106 8 .312
2010 Projected 77 15 82 2 .303
Comments The power is gone for Maggs. His second half was impressive but still lacked pop. If he gets enough at-bats, expect mediocre numbers from a guy three seasons removed from a .363 AVG.
Jhonny Peralta
2009 57 11 83 0 .254
Career Average 82 18 77 1 .266
2010 Projected 75 17 85 0 .265
Comments After a power outage to start the season and a horrible September Peralta regressed to his poor 2006 numbers. He still qualifies at shortstop and brings significant power at the position. Don't expect 2008 but 2007 isn't out of the question.


<< Legit or Quit: 2009 Career Years Analyzed HOME 2010 Sleepers: Matt LaPorta >>


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