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Legit or Quit: 2010 Sophomore Hitters Analyzed

Cody Crosby, FantasyJuice.com

February 25, 2010

Last season brought some impressive debuts from some of the top prospects in baseball. We have all heard of the dreaded "sophomore slump" so which players are more likely to see decreased production in 2010?

The list below shows each hitter who received a vote in the 2009 American and National League Most Valuable Player voting. Each player's 2009 statistics are listed with projected 2010 stats for comparison.

The 2009 rookie pitchers will be analyzed soon. Feel free to comment below.

	Games	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	LorQ
Elvis Andrus							Legit
2009	145	72	6	40	33	.267
2010 Proj	155	82	6	47	41	.271
Comments	You can't expect much better from a 21 year-old brought up for his glove. This kid is impressive and has a high ceiling for improvement.
Gordon Beckham							Legit
2009	103	58	14	63	7	.270
2010 Proj	157	86	21	81	11	.282
Comments	Beckham has what it takes to be a top 5 second baseman in 2011 and he's only going to get better.
Chris Coghlan							Legit
2009	128	84	9	47	8	.321
2010 Proj	155	91	11	57	12	.297
Comments	Playing a new position for the first time in the bigs helped Coghlan earn NL ROY honors. He's much more valuable as a 2B, where he will most likely move once the Marlins unload Dan Uggla.
Andrew McCutchen							Legit
2009	108	74	12	54	22	.286
2010 Proj	158	92	16	61	28	.275
Comments	McCutchen has what it takes to be the top hitter from the 2009 class. I'm not as bullish as others (FJ's own Michael Ryan) but I'm buying him as a top 75 fantasy contributor in 2010.
Casey McGehee							Quit
2009	116	58	16	66	0	.301
2010 Proj	124	54	14	59	0	.285
Comments	Don't expect McGehee to last long at third for the Milwaukee Brewers due to back issues and Mat Gamel. He's a top-notch pinch hitter but not an everyday player.
	Games	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	LorQ
Garrett Jones							Legit
2009	82	45	21	44	10	.293
2010 Proj	148	76	25	82	9	.275
Comments	Jones burst onto the scene in 2010 after spending 11 seasons in the minors. Don't overpay for his numbers expecting 35+ dingers in 2009.
Everth Cabrera							Quit
2009	103	59	2	31	25	.255
2010 Proj	110	64	3	33	32	.259
Comments	Cabrera had a shaky 2009 but still managed to rack up the Sbs. Not bad for a kid who played only 7 games above A+ ball before the bigs. If his AVG stays low don't be surprised to see him in the minors at some point in 2009.
Dexter Fowler							Legit
2009	135	73	4	34	27	.266
2010 Proj	145	77	6	45	31	.276
Comments	If he can continue to find at-bats in Colorado, Fowler should be in for a solid speed season for fantasy owners. His power is still developing but will show up eventually.
Gerardo Parra							Legit
2009	120	59	5	60	5	.290
2010 Proj	157	77	7	69	6	.276
Comments	Parra had one of the most consistent seasons of this group. His season AVG hid his struggles against lefties (.220 AVG.) His lower AVG will hurt his speed and runs.
Colby Rasmus							Legit
2009	147	72	16	52	3	.251
2010 Proj	152	83	21	68	11	.268
Comments	A tale of two halves for Rasmus in 2009 with many predicting ROY honors at the All-Star Break. Don't expect too much more in '09 but speed should increase slightly.