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Legit or Quit: 2010 Sophomore Pitchers Analyzed
Cody Crosby, FantasyJuice.com

Continuing my analysis of the best rookies from 2009, I take a look at the top rookie pitchers from last season. Will these players avoid the sophomore slump?

The list below shows each pitcher who received a vote in the 2009 American and National League Most Valuable Player voting. Each player's 2009 statistics are listed with projected 2010 stats for comparison.

See my analysis of the 2009 rookie hitters posted last week.

Innings W SV Ks ERA WHIP LorQ
Andrew Bailey Legit
2009 83.1 6 26 91 1.84 0.88
2010 Proj 85 3 39 83 2.73 1.11
Comments Bailey heads into 2010 as the closer in Oakland after an impressive rookie campaign. Hitters will start to figure him out but his minor league numbers show he's here to stay.
Rick Porcello Legit
2009 170.2 14 0 89 3.96 1.34
2010 Proj 180 15 0 105 4.10 1.31
Comments What a year from a 20-year-old pitcher. He is just starting to figure out his stuff and should stay consistent with an excellent ground-ball rate.
Jeff Niemann Legit
2009 180.2 13 0 125 3.94 1.35
2010 Proj 197 14 0 149 4.02 1.34
Comments While the ERA increased for Niemann during the second half, his command actually improved. Expect similar numbers to last season but an increase in innings.
Brett Anderson Legit
2009 175.1 11 0 150 4.06 1.28
2010 Proj 181 13 0 167 3.56 1.23
Comments Like Porcello, had an impressive ground-ball percentage at 51% in 2009. He's only going to improve as he figures out major league hitters. Keeper managers need him on their teams.
J.A. Happ Legit
2009 166 12 0 119 2.93 1.23
2010 Proj 192 15 0 157 3.88 1.32
Comments A low BABIP is likely the reason for the sub-3.00 ERA in 2009 for Happ. Many experts are writing him off but Happ's minor league numbers are impressive and his age points to maturity. I'm buying him in 2010.
Tommy Hanson Legit
2009 127.2 11 0 116 2.89 1.18
2010 Proj 192 16 0 188 3.29 1.21
Comments There isn't much to say about Hanson at this point. This kid is good. He's being drafted high in 2010 and will be an elite fantasy pitcher in 2011.
Randy Wells Legit
2009 165.1 12 0 104 3.05 1.28
2010 Proj 197 14 0 121 4.34 1.38
Comments A great season from an older rookie. His minor league numbers don't point to the success he had last season. His BABIP was well below career averages so expect increases in ERA and WHIP for 2010. He's worth a late round pick but temper expectations.


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