Who is OF ?
The easiest answer is that Carl Crawford is an enigma; he is often over-hyped with ridiculous expectations but has still managed to (almost always) produce at a top level regardless.
We know that he is a perennial top 20 draft pick, and one of the top outfielders chosen every year. And why not for a player entering his prime with supposed 30/70 and .300+ potential? That is a player fantasy owners dream about and Crawford has been close to that player in the past.
The only problem is that he hasn’t even hit 20 homers in a season and has yet to reach 60 steals and is entering his seventh full season in the majors. Crawford also hasn’t hit more than 81 RBIs and has only topped 100 runs twice (the last time was in 2005).
Crawford has been a poster boy for the pre-draft hype machine for several years now. I was going to use a Michael Vick comparison in terms of hype but thought better of it as I don’t want people thinking I am associating Carl with Mr. Vick.
Now, I am not saying that Crawford has been a bad fantasy player. Far from it, actually.
Crawford has been an excellent fantasy outfielder for five of the past six seasons, with double digit homers and 46-59 steals to go with a batting average right around .300. Unfortunately, that one stinker season was last year’s 69/8/57/25/.273 disaster.
It is time that people stop over-hyping Crawford expecting that magical 30/70 season and see him for what he really is: a great talent whom you can generally rely on for 10-15 homers and 45+ steals with an average around .300, anything better should be considered a bonus, not an expectation.
Yes, I am aware that he did none of those things last season. Nothing is guaranteed in fantasy baseball, but Crawford has a track record that shows what he is capable of when healthy.
After averaging over 150 games a season since 2003, Crawford only played in 109 games in 2008. He came back in time for the Rays’ magical playoff run and batted .290 with 2 homers and 7 stolen bases in 16 games, which is back at a normal Carl Crawford level.
The good news for those who seem to find themselves drafting Crawford year after year is that his draft value will most likely be at its lowest in years after people see 2008’s stat line.
Just make sure that if you are drafting Carl Crawford, you are drafting him for what he really is, not for what you think he should be.
